New forecasts indicate that Bitcoin (BTC) may climb above $140,000 before the end of October, signaling the potential start of another major rally. Based on historical data and empirical modeling, a crypto economist has suggested that the probability of Bitcoin crossing this key threshold is increasing steadily.
According to Timothy Peterson, a well-known crypto analyst and economist, Bitcoin’s performance this October looks promising. Sharing his insights on X (formerly Twitter), Peterson revealed that his AI-powered bootstrapped simulation suggests that nearly half of October’s potential gains have already been realized.
The empirical model, built on data from October 2015 to 2024, shows a 50% chance that Bitcoin will close the month above $140,000, marking a 15% rise from current levels around $121,000. There’s also a 43% probability that BTC could end slightly lower, near $136,000.
Peterson’s chart outlines daily price movements for October 2025, with projections stretching into early November. The model’s mean prediction (blue dashed line) points toward a steady climb from $120,000 to $140,000, while the 68% confidence interval stays comfortably above $130,000. A wider 95% confidence interval suggests Bitcoin has only about a 5% chance of dropping below $110,000 or surging past $170,000 this month.
Interestingly, Peterson also noted that October has historically been Bitcoin’s strongest month. Since 2015, the 9th, 20th, and 28th days of October have been bullish about 71% of the time, while the 29th has seen gains 78% of the time. This recurring pattern reinforces the likelihood of another “Uptober” rally.
Long-Term Model Signals Potential Rise to $200,000
In a separate analysis, Peterson shared a long-term Bitcoin price chart highlighting consistent market cycles since 2022. Although he distances himself from traditional technical analysis, Peterson emphasized that Bitcoin often follows repetitive growth cycles.
His chart depicts BTC trading within two parallel upward trend lines, marking steady growth since the previous market bottom. Several green bands indicate repeated phases of strong price acceleration.
Based on this model, Bitcoin appears to be firmly positioned within a bullish growth channel, with the potential to reach $200,000 within the next 170 days. Peterson estimated a better-than-even (over 50%) probability of this scenario unfolding — suggesting Bitcoin’s long-term momentum remains intact as it heads into 2026.
Conclusion
With both historical trends and empirical models aligning, the outlook for Bitcoin remains notably bullish. If Peterson’s projections hold true, BTC could not only break the $140K barrier this October but also continue its journey toward $200K, reaffirming its reputation as the world’s leading digital asset.